Daily Briefs

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10 September 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #303

War in Ukraine: Day 198

IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

ITALY
Far-right Brothers of Italy set to become the majority in both chambers
On 09 September, a study by the Cattaneo Institute think tank on an opinion poll conducted on 31 August showed that the conservative alliance led by Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy would become a majority in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate in the upcoming elections. The 25 September election will see the rise of the far-right Brother of Italy as the largest party in the parliament. The fractured centre-left Democratic Party is seen losing its standing in the parliament against a united conservative bloc. It is set to become the second largest majority after the alliance. The left-wing 5-star party will become the third largest majority. (Gavin Jones, “Italy's right heads for clear election victory, final polls indicate,” Reuters, 09 September 2022)

SWEDEN
Rise of the far-right in Sweden causing concerns among its citizens amid internal problems
On 09 September, the recent polls in Sweden showed the rise of the far-right Sweden Democrats. The people are afraid that the far right might win even though the left-wing Social Democrats are at the lead currently. The right-wing parties, the conservatives, liberals, and Christian-Democrats, are seen backing the far-right Sweden Democrats. The major worries that the people of Sweden in their country are climate change, increasing gang violence and tough immigration policies. The anti-immigrant attitude that the Sweden Democrats have is also concerning to the people. Due to slow integration, there have been a lot of gangs and gun violence in the country. The polling is set to occur on 11 September. (Priyanka Shankar, “Swedish elections: What's at stake,” Deutsche Welle, 09 September 2022)

REGIONAL
Eurozone fights inflation by rising 0.75 per cent point
On 08 September, the European Central Bank increased its cost of borrowing rate by 0.75 per cent totaling 1.25 per cent to keep inflation in check. Inflations of the Eurozone rose from 8.9 per cent in July to 9.1 in August. The ECB is predicted to have stagnant growth during the winter ahead but might avoid recession, according to the central bank’s President Christine Lagarde. Each national bank is set to take measures to control the growing inflation and the impending Recession. The Bank of England has increased its points rise by 0.5 per cent making the base rate at 2.25 per cent. The meeting to confirm the rise is postponed to 22 September to honour the Queen’s death. (Philip Inman, “Eurozone interest rates must continue to rise, says European Central Bank,” The Guardian, 09 September 2022)

INTERNATIONAL
Navalny’s treatment by Russian authorities is concerning: the US
On 09 September, the US State Department spokesperson Ned Price said that the US is concerned about the treatment of the Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny who is currently in prison. Navalny was said to be placed in solitary confinement, even for minor violations. Navalny is the major opposition to President Vladimir Putin and the most vocal critic inside Russia. Navalny said that he was imprisoned on false charges, which was done to suppress dissent and destroy his political ambitions. The prison authorities also stripped him of his attorney-client privilege and let him communicate through double plastic glass with bars inside. (“U.S. 'deeply concerned' by Russia's treatment of jailed opposition leader Navalny,” Reuters, 10 September 2022)

War in Ukraine: Day 198
By Rishma Banerjee

War on the ground
On 09 September, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met the CEO of Turkey’s defence company Baykar, Haluk Bayraktar. Zelenskyy thanked the contribution of Baykar in Ukraine’s fight against Russia and presented Bayraktar with an Order of Merit, first class. The two parties discussed further cooperation and strengthening the defence capabilities of Ukraine’s forces. On the same day, the President of Latvia, Egils Levits, Poland’s Prime Minister of Poland Mateusz Morawiecki, and former Deputy Prime Minister Jarosław Kaczyński, Czech Republic’s Prime Minister, Petr Fiala and Slovenia’s former Prime Minister of Janez Janša were honored on the Alley of Courage on Constitution Square in Kyiv. Zelenskyy thanked the leaders and their countries for the continuous support to Ukraine. Levits too presented Zelenskyy with the highest military award of the Republic of Latvia – the Order of Viesturs. The decision to honor Zelenskyy was due to his steadfast defence of his state.

In a Telegram post, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine has an army with one of the largest numbers of women serving in the ranks. He released a new video titled "Fight for Freedom" by United24 Media, which pays respect to the women defenders, their dedication and decision to be on the frontlines of the war. Zelenskyy said that more than being man or woman, protecting freedom was the driver behind so many women joining the forces.

On 09 September, Critical Threats reported on Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region. So far, an estimated 2,500 square kilometers have been recaptured by Ukraine. Forces are advancing from Kupyansk and the Oskil River to Izyum. They will be successful in collapsing the Russian positions in the region if they can disrupt the major Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs). As response to this counteroffensive, Russian Ministry of Defense published footage of Russian military convoy enroute the Kharviv City-Izyum line. The forces had been redeployed from this region to the Donetsk region to strengthen Russia's hold in the Southern Axis.

On 09 September, the Ukraine government, World Bank and the European Commission released a report on costs incurred by Ukraine due to Russia’s invasion. Till June, Ukraine had suffered over USD 97 billion in direct damages and lost approximately USD 252 billion through disruptions to its economic production and supply chains. Due to the war, it is estimated that Ukraine’s poverty rate will rise to 21 per cent from two per cent before the war. As of June, Ukraine’s reconstruction efforts will require USD 349 billion, which is around 1.6 times the country’s GDP in 2021. The report mentioned that the numbers were preliminary and likely to increase as the war continues. It said: “The impact of the invasion will be felt for generations, with families displaced and separated, disruptions to human development, destruction of intrinsic cultural heritage and reversal of a positive economic and poverty trajectory.”

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia

On 09 September, President Vladimir Putin met the permanent members of Russia’s Security Council. He thanked them for participating in the Eastern Economic Forum, saying that it has yielded “good results.” He referred to the criticism to his comments about Ukraine’s grains not going to the poorest countries and said that the Foreign Ministry will contact its partners about the issue. Putin alleged that most of the grains from the UN-brokered deal were going to the EU, while only two ships with only three per cent of the total grains exported have been sent to the poorest countries like Yemen and Djibouti. Putin said: “We believe it to be right to ramp up deliveries to the poorest countries.” He also expressed readiness to supply fertilizers to the poorest nations free of charge.

On the same day, RIA Novosti reported a three to four kilometer line of refugees near the Logachvka checkpoint on the border between Kharkiv and Russia. This is in response to the increased attacks in Kharkiv, where Ukraine launched a major counteroffensive. The Russian head of the Kharkiv region, Vitaly Ganchev also appealed to residents to evacuate if their homes fell in the war zone. He said the border service of Russia would arrange for all necessary assistance, if they cross into the country.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe

On 09 September, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg welcomed the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken to the NATO headquarters for the North Atlantic Council meeting. Stoltenberg appreciated how the US is leading the way in terms of aid to Ukraine. He thanked the US for the recently announced USD 2.7 billion package of additional support. In his address, Stoltenberg referred to the decisions taken by the US-led Ukraine Defence Contact Group in Ramstein, and reiterated the ramping up and continuing the military support for Ukraine.

On 09 September, EU finance ministers and Central Bank governors met with the European Commission and the European Commission Bank at an informal meeting in Prague. The finance ministers discussed on the impact of the war in Ukraine on their economies and supported the new assistance package worth EUR five billion. The EU energy ministers met at an emergency meeting in Brussels and asked the European Commission to propose broader price caps on revenue from non-gas energy producers. They said that this would help the firms survive. However, they could not take any concrete decision on a cap for Russian gas prices. The commission is expected to release its recommendations on 13 September.

On 08 September, Latvia’s Cabinet passed and adopted the decision to impose travel restrictions on Russian citizens. This is to prevent Russians from using Latvia as a transit point for tourism into other areas in Europe. A similar stance has been taken by Lithuania, Latvia and Poland too. The decision takes effect from 19 September 2022. On the same issue, the EU also suspended the visa travel agreement that they had with Russia, thus making it more difficult and expensive for Russian traveling into the Schengen Area. The suspension will take effect from 12 September.

Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that Ukraine is ready to help Poland with the reduction of coal use for power generation. Ukraine will also be ready to supply Poland with electricity. Morawiecki thanked Zelenskyy for his willingness to provide the necessary assistance in a short notice, given the energy crisis across Europe. The two leaders also discussed the ways in which traffic flow at the border can be controlled better, since there is a significant backlog of trucks waiting to cross the border on both sides

Also on 08 September, The New York Times reported on the comments by the head of US’s Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), William Burns at a conference in Washington. Burns alleged that Putin had underestimated the Ukrainian resolve to defend itself when invading Ukraine in February. According to Burns, as Ukraine still continues its counteroffensive, Putin’s invasion can be deemed as a failure. He said: “Not only has the weakness of the Russian military been exposed … but there is going to be long-term damage done to the Russian economy and to generations of Russians.”

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war

01 May 2024, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #822

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War in Ukraine: Day 198

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